Category: Domain Investing Math

Calendar Aging How Domain Age Changes EV

In domain name investing, age is often cited as a marker of quality, prestige, and credibility, but what is less discussed is the mathematical way that calendar age changes the expected value of a name. Unlike stocks or bonds, which have quantifiable yields or dividends, a domain’s value is probabilistic, hinging on the chance of…

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Clustering Portfolio by Theme to Improve Pricing

Domain investors often think of their portfolios as large, unstructured collections of assets, each unique and requiring its own evaluation. But behind the individuality of each name lie patterns that, when grouped intelligently, can reveal pricing insights that are otherwise obscured. Clustering a portfolio by theme allows an investor to harness the power of segmentation,…

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Measuring Opportunity Pipelines Weighted Pipeline Value

In domain investing, most of the attention is given to the binary outcome of whether a domain sells or does not sell. Yet beneath that outcome lies a spectrum of opportunities, ranging from casual inquiries to serious negotiations, each with its own probability of conversion. For investors with active portfolios, dozens or even hundreds of…

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Expected Value of a Domain Purchase Probability × Payoff

At its core, domain name investing is a probability game disguised as a marketplace of words. Every time an investor acquires a name, they are essentially placing a wager on the likelihood that someone in the future will want that exact string of characters badly enough to pay more than what it cost to hold.…

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Modeling Time-to-Sale with Hazard Rates and Survival Curves

One of the most persistent challenges in domain name investing is understanding how long it will take for a particular name to sell. While it is tempting to assume that each year carries a fixed probability of sale, the reality is far more nuanced. The timing of sales matters because it dictates cash flow, influences…

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