Forecasting Registry Service Provider Demand in a Denser Namespace

As ICANN prepares to launch the next round of new gTLDs, potentially opening the door to hundreds or even thousands of additional strings, one of the most consequential and complex ripple effects will be the increase in demand for registry service providers. These providers, who manage the technical backend operations of a TLD—including DNS resolution, EPP systems, WHOIS services, escrow compliance, and abuse mitigation—are the backbone of the domain name system. In the 2012 round, only a handful of companies were equipped to serve as registry service providers at scale. In 2028 and beyond, the challenge will be accommodating a vastly denser and more diverse namespace, one that requires not just more capacity but more specialization, regional reach, security compliance, and operational flexibility.

Forecasting demand for registry service providers requires understanding both the volume and character of the next wave of gTLDs. Unlike in 2012, when there was a high concentration of speculative applicants chasing premium generics or brand owners experimenting with dot-brand strategies, the next round is expected to feature a broader array of applicants. These will likely include city governments, indigenous and linguistic communities, public-interest coalitions, small and medium enterprises, and multinational corporations with ESG-driven domain strategies. Many of these applicants will lack the technical infrastructure or expertise to operate a registry in-house, increasing reliance on third-party service providers. While consolidation has occurred in the backend market—with players like Identity Digital, CentralNic, and ZDNS serving dozens or hundreds of TLDs each—the scale and diversity of the upcoming round could test their capacity, especially if multiple TLDs launch concurrently.

Moreover, registry service provider selection is no longer driven solely by technical stability and ICANN compliance. Newer applicants are demanding customized services, such as differentiated registration policies, advanced analytics, geo-targeting, abuse reporting dashboards, and support for non-Latin scripts through Internationalized Domain Names (IDNs). This evolution in customer expectations means that demand will not be satisfied merely by bandwidth and uptime guarantees. Registry service providers will need to scale horizontally—offering a broader suite of services tailored to niche or mission-driven TLDs—and vertically, by enhancing their infrastructure to support high-volume or complex registry operations.

The geographic and linguistic expansion of the namespace also impacts demand forecasts. As ICANN places increasing emphasis on global inclusivity, there will likely be more applications from Asia, Africa, and Latin America. These applicants may seek regional providers who offer localized support, understand regional regulatory contexts, and can handle IDN variants and right-to-left scripts natively. While major providers can attempt to meet this need through partnerships or multilingual customer support, the lack of regionally headquartered, ICANN-accredited registry service providers remains a bottleneck. This opens the door for new entrants—particularly regional ISPs, telcos, or cloud infrastructure companies—to enter the registry services market, provided they can meet the stringent technical and compliance requirements.

Security considerations are also reshaping demand. With DNS abuse, ransomware campaigns, and phishing attacks growing in sophistication, many new gTLD applicants will select providers based on their capabilities in active abuse detection, automated mitigation, and secure data handling. Providers that have invested in DNSSEC deployment, DDoS protection, real-time threat intelligence integration, and GDPR-compliant data controls will be more attractive to both commercial and public-interest TLD operators. Additionally, the evolving ICANN ecosystem may introduce new baseline contractual obligations for registry operators—possibly including ESG-related disclosures or audit trails—which would in turn require registry providers to build these features into their platforms. Demand, therefore, is not just quantitative but qualitative, pushing providers to continually upgrade and diversify their service models.

Another critical factor is the rise of SaaS-style registry platforms. The traditional model of large, custom-built registry systems is giving way to modular, API-driven, cloud-native platforms that can be quickly deployed and scaled. These platforms appeal particularly to small-scale TLDs or dot-brand operators who want to focus on marketing and business development rather than infrastructure. The demand for plug-and-play solutions with transparent pricing, self-service portals, and automated compliance monitoring is expected to rise significantly. This trend could lead to a bifurcation in the market, with enterprise-scale providers serving complex gTLD portfolios and new cloud-based entrants capturing market share from niche or lower-volume TLDs that seek simplicity and agility.

Demand forecasting must also account for the timeline and phasing of TLD launches. Even if ICANN approves 500 or more new strings in the next round, they will not all go live at once. Phased delegations and staggered sunrise periods will stretch launches over multiple years. However, the initial spikes in demand—especially during the pre-delegation testing and contract execution phases—will likely create periods of intense pressure on registry service providers. Those with limited capacity may be forced to prioritize high-value clients, leaving smaller applicants scrambling for available backend support. This could further accelerate consolidation in the sector or incentivize ICANN to certify additional providers to ensure operational redundancy and market competition.

Financial considerations are also at play. The cost of registry services remains a major component of capital budgeting for new gTLD applicants. While economies of scale allow large backend operators to offer attractive per-domain or per-TLD pricing, smaller TLDs may struggle with minimum annual fees, setup costs, or premium support charges. Registry service providers that can offer creative pricing models—such as usage-based billing, deferred payment plans for developing regions, or revenue-sharing agreements—will find themselves in higher demand. Additionally, as premium domain name sales become a more important revenue stream for many new gTLDs, providers that offer integrated premium name pricing engines, registrar syndication tools, and aftermarket support will gain a competitive edge.

In a denser namespace, interoperability and registrar outreach also become strategic assets. Registry service providers who maintain strong relationships with leading registrars and who offer seamless integration into registrar platforms will be better positioned to help their clients succeed. This is especially true in a world where end-user adoption of new gTLDs is still a challenge and where registry-registrar collaboration can make or break a TLD’s visibility in the marketplace. Demand will grow not just for technical excellence but for providers who understand the business of domains and can actively support customer acquisition, retention, and branding efforts.

Ultimately, forecasting registry service-provider demand in the next gTLD round requires looking beyond simple metrics of domain volume or TLD count. The future namespace will be broader, more mission-driven, more technically complex, and more globally distributed than any previous iteration. Providers who can scale securely, support innovation, and offer adaptable business models will not just absorb the increased demand—they will define the future of the DNS. Those who fail to evolve may find themselves outpaced by a new generation of agile, compliance-savvy, and customer-centric competitors. The race to support the next chapter of internet expansion is already underway, and the winners will be those who prepare not just for growth, but for transformation.

As ICANN prepares to launch the next round of new gTLDs, potentially opening the door to hundreds or even thousands of additional strings, one of the most consequential and complex ripple effects will be the increase in demand for registry service providers. These providers, who manage the technical backend operations of a TLD—including DNS resolution,…