Category: Domain Investing Math

Small Sample Pitfalls Overfitting to a Handful of Sales

One of the most common and costly mistakes in domain name investing is drawing sweeping conclusions from a handful of sales. Because domains are an illiquid asset class, where even large portfolios may only convert one to two percent of inventory annually, sales data is naturally sparse. For an individual investor, this sparsity creates a…

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Setting KPI Dashboards What to Track and Why

Domain name investing, despite its reputation for being an art of intuition and creative judgment, is ultimately a numbers-driven business. Portfolios rise or fall not only on the quality of the assets but also on how effectively their performance is measured, analyzed, and adjusted over time. Just as sophisticated companies rely on dashboards of key…

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Valuing Payment Plans Default Risk and Effective APR

In domain name investing, the structure of a transaction is often as important as the headline sale price. While many investors prefer the simplicity of lump-sum sales, a growing portion of the market involves payment plans, also called installment agreements, where buyers spread the purchase price over months or even years. At first glance, a…

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Using Kelly Fractions for Safer Acquisitions

In domain name investing, capital allocation is both the engine of growth and the source of most investor failures. The temptation to overextend on acquisitions, chasing what seems like a sure winner, is one of the most common reasons portfolios collapse under the weight of renewals and poor liquidity. On the other side, being too…

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Brandable Portfolios Hit Rate Fat Tails and EV

Among the many branches of domain name investing, brandables represent one of the most alluring and also one of the most mathematically challenging categories. Unlike exact-match generics, which derive value from obvious commercial keywords, or ultra-short domains, which benefit from inherent scarcity, brandables live in a world of creative language, phonetics, and cultural resonance. Investors…

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TLD Choice Renewal Costs vs Price Realization

One of the most important yet underestimated dimensions in domain name investing is the choice of top-level domain. The extension appended to the right of the dot determines not only the perception of the name by potential buyers but also the economic mechanics that govern its long-term viability. Every TLD carries two intertwined mathematical consequences:…

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Backorder Allocation Expected Fill Rates and Budgeting

In domain name investing, one of the most strategically sensitive processes is acquiring expiring names. Unlike hand registrations or auctions, backordering expired domains introduces uncertainty not only about whether the name will drop but also about whether the investor’s chosen platform will succeed in capturing it. This uncertainty has both probabilistic and financial dimensions, and…

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Email Response Time and Price Causal or Correlation?

In the domain name investment world, negotiations often unfold through email, where timing can influence tone, perception, and ultimately the closing price. A recurring question among investors is whether faster email response times directly cause higher sale prices, or whether the observed relationship is simply a correlation arising from other factors. This question is not…

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Forecasting Inbound Volume from Search Trends

In domain name investing, one of the most difficult yet valuable skills is forecasting the level of inbound interest a particular category of names will attract. Because domains are illiquid assets, with sell-through rates typically around one to two percent annually, investors must rely on signals to gauge which names are more likely to generate…

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Estimating Buyer Utility from Offer Patterns

In domain name investing, every inbound offer is more than just a number; it is a signal about how much value the buyer perceives in the asset. The study of economics provides a useful framework for this, particularly the concept of utility—the subjective benefit a buyer expects to gain from securing the domain. Unlike physical…

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