Category: Domain Investing Math

Setting Reserve Prices in Auctions Risk vs Reach

One of the most strategically complex decisions in domain name investing is how to set reserve prices when listing domains in auctions. A reserve price is the minimum acceptable sale price at which the domain will be released to a winning bidder. The choice of reserve directly shapes the outcome of the auction, influencing bidder…

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Moats and Scarcity Quantifying Rarity Premiums

In domain name investing, value is rarely derived from utility alone. Unlike commodities, which can be produced in abundance and compete on cost, domains exist within a fixed supply framework dictated by the domain name system. Every exact-match string of characters in each extension is unique, and for the most desirable categories—such as short dictionary…

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Liquidity Planning Days of Renewal Coverage on Hand

In domain name investing, where revenue arrives sporadically and often in large, unpredictable bursts, the most consistent expense investors face is renewals. Every domain in a portfolio must be renewed annually, and these costs accumulate relentlessly regardless of whether sales materialize. Unlike acquisition spending, which can be paused, or discretionary marketing, which can be cut,…

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Confidence Intervals for Sell Through Rate Estimates

In domain name investing, one of the most widely used metrics for evaluating portfolio performance is the sell-through rate, the percentage of domains sold in a given period relative to the number of domains held. On the surface, calculating it seems simple: take the number of sales in a year, divide by the total portfolio…

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Risk of Ruin Bankroll Management for Aggressive Bidders

In domain name investing, auctions are often the battleground where fortunes are won or lost. The competitive nature of auctions, combined with the allure of acquiring rare or premium assets, pushes many investors to bid aggressively, sometimes far beyond their original intentions. While boldness can secure exceptional domains, it also carries the hidden danger of…

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Optimizing BIN vs Make Offer Mix by Segment

In domain name investing, the way prices are presented to potential buyers is as strategic as the acquisition of the names themselves. Two primary methods dominate sales platforms: fixed Buy It Now (BIN) pricing, where the domain is listed at a clear, non-negotiable price, and Make Offer listings, where buyers are invited to submit bids…

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Two Word vs One Word Price Ratios and Probability Uplifts

In domain name investing, one of the most enduring debates revolves around the relative value of one-word domains compared to two-word combinations. Both categories can be lucrative, but they behave differently in terms of pricing dynamics, probability of sale, and strategic role within a portfolio. Understanding the mathematical relationship between these two asset classes is…

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Wholesale vs Retail Spreads Arbitrage Windows

One of the defining characteristics of the domain name market is the gulf between wholesale pricing and retail end-user sales. Unlike equities or commodities, where transparent exchanges create narrow bid-ask spreads, the domain market is fragmented and inefficient. Wholesale transactions occur between investors, often in auctions or private deals, where liquidity and speed dominate pricing.…

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Measuring Negotiator Skill Close Rate Above Expected

In domain name investing, negotiations are the decisive moment where potential turns into realized revenue. Acquiring strong inventory, managing renewals, and setting rational price anchors are all essential, but when an inbound lead arrives, the difference between a portfolio that stagnates and one that compounds often comes down to the investor’s ability to negotiate effectively.…

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Using Logistic Regression for Probability of Sale

One of the greatest challenges in domain name investing is forecasting the probability that a given domain will sell within a defined period of time. Unlike commodities with transparent exchanges or securities with historical return distributions, domains are heterogeneous assets whose value depends on language, culture, brandability, scarcity, and timing of demand. Traditional averages like…

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